Thursday, October 30, 2008

How Much Have you Lost in this Bear Market?

Oct. 30, 2008

When will the Bear Market sink to its Deepest?

That’s right. Nobody knows for sure. Which is ironic by the way, because we know that and yet we ask. Grin

We know about bear and bull markets. We know that they exist. And yet probably, for most of us, we get to realize that they do happen, only when we get to experience them first hand. Which is great, actually. Because accept it or not, acknowledge it or deny it, there is no better teacher than experience itself. What’s amusing still, is we know about diversifying, cost-averaging, buying low, selling high. And yet we realize come tribulation time, that these things are actually easier said than done. Worst, we forget that they are exactly the same things successful and veteran investors advocate. During bullish and bearish times. Even before, and after the great depression. And then we succumb to hopelessness and misery, and we wonder.

It’s only during times like these, that we get to test the integrity of our convictions, and develop a strategy that will most suit our goals, not to mention our psyche.

As for my losses, suffices to say, that it’s huge. Especially for someone who decides to stay. Being most of my money into MFs/UITFs, relative to my individual stocks, I believe that I’m at least diversified. A small proportion is into low risk/low return products. I still managed to do some cost-averaging until last September (which by the way, I had a most difficult time because the clerk wouldn’t want to accept it anymore). As for any reservation, I have a lot. But I am steadfast in my resolve that I am not redeeming at a lost. (In short, the very first sign of a bullish market, I’m selling them!).

As for your last question, personally if you have waited long, and have incurred more than 30%, why decide to redeem it still (besides, it’s kinda huge for a stop loss strategy). Yes, paper loss is still a lost opportunity (when you can just withdraw it and put in another investment product where it could possibly earn profit). But as terrapin says, are such options available here, in this kind of market, when everybody would opt to put their money under their mattresses than take chance in a very uncertain time? And besides, paper loss when actualized is still money lost. Which by the way, you have shed blood and tears to acquire. And also, if this is the price of being able to play the game and have the chance to get all (if not more) of your capital then I’m willing to pay, or wait for it.

You know that no single strategy can guarantee security of your capital or your earnings. For this matter, why not adapt more than one which you think are equally sensible?

Of course the story becomes different when you are old (probably near retirement, in your retirement or past your retirement) too old to wait for the next bullish market (which maybe >5 years in the making). In this regard, it is a SCREAMING REDEEM IT!
hihi

No comments: