Friday, October 31, 2008

How Much Have you Lost in this Bear Market?

Oct. 31, 2008

Why do local Investors use the US as bases when investing in MFs?

You have a point richpulubi, as you’ve always have. Grin

As for the reason, why our stock market doesn’t mimic that of the US, is simply because we are not America (I mean, we all know what they have that we don’t).

As to why local investors use the US as basis when investing in MFs? That’s exactly my question before which unfortunately I haven’t resolved completely. Until finally I just learned to accept the fact that Filipinos are not confident with their own market or probably their own economy (which is understandable by the way) that they use the stock index of powerful nations as a tool in telling when to buy or sell (which is good actually because the movement becomes a little predictable since they are a few hours ahead of us (in reality, we are the ones a few hours earlier, which makes it all the more ironic), all you need is to stay a little late at night, tune in to BBC or CNBC and give up watching some of your telenovelas Got an idea!. This is the reason why peso cost-averaging, index fund investing would work. Besides, it’s the same human reaction that underlies every stock market (not to mention that they are interconnected)

Relatively yes, the upsloping of the US stock index is steeper (rather most steep) than the PSEi. Of course it will be sarcastic of me if I’d say comparing it to 50 years ago, the PSEi has gone markedly up. We’ll just have to accept the fact, that if we use the same time-frame to measure our stock market against that of the US, then you are right. And yes, there is that possibility that the PSEi may not reach that summit again Cry (let's just discount that it is possible though, hehe fight1)

But then PSEi need not reach a peak in order to profit in individual stocks and in order for NAVPUS to climb in MFs, given, that your portfolio is well diversified (the very reason why I put most of my money in MFs aside from not having to worry about stop loss, exit gain, but which leads me to think that I should be putting this in the other thread), and you have cost-averaged.

And long term is not forever. Just some 100 years, hehe. It’s a hedge against the volatility of the market. But then again use fundamentals but do not forget the technicals. And watch TV.

As for buying now when all are in a low to offset the losses you incurred when stocks are in its record high, that is cost-averaging. Redeeming now is not the answer, but buying now is (at least for me).

And yes, if you leave your money in the stock market, and simply wait for it to go up again, without doing anything at all, it will not even guarantee the return of your capital. That will not even pass as a strategy! In that case, redeem everything and do not invest at all.

But in the end, each one of us will realize, that it’s actually a matter of perspective (not to mention plan). For some, a lost opportunity is as good as money loss. For me, actualizing a loss by redeeming it, is. For some, this is the end, for others this is the beginning.

But which provides us the best ground to present all our arguments.

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