Thursday, October 30, 2008

How Much Have you Lost in this Bear Market?

Oct. 30, 2008

When will the Bear Market sink to its Deepest?

That’s right. Nobody knows for sure. Which is ironic by the way, because we know that and yet we ask. Grin

We know about bear and bull markets. We know that they exist. And yet probably, for most of us, we get to realize that they do happen, only when we get to experience them first hand. Which is great, actually. Because accept it or not, acknowledge it or deny it, there is no better teacher than experience itself. What’s amusing still, is we know about diversifying, cost-averaging, buying low, selling high. And yet we realize come tribulation time, that these things are actually easier said than done. Worst, we forget that they are exactly the same things successful and veteran investors advocate. During bullish and bearish times. Even before, and after the great depression. And then we succumb to hopelessness and misery, and we wonder.

It’s only during times like these, that we get to test the integrity of our convictions, and develop a strategy that will most suit our goals, not to mention our psyche.

As for my losses, suffices to say, that it’s huge. Especially for someone who decides to stay. Being most of my money into MFs/UITFs, relative to my individual stocks, I believe that I’m at least diversified. A small proportion is into low risk/low return products. I still managed to do some cost-averaging until last September (which by the way, I had a most difficult time because the clerk wouldn’t want to accept it anymore). As for any reservation, I have a lot. But I am steadfast in my resolve that I am not redeeming at a lost. (In short, the very first sign of a bullish market, I’m selling them!).

As for your last question, personally if you have waited long, and have incurred more than 30%, why decide to redeem it still (besides, it’s kinda huge for a stop loss strategy). Yes, paper loss is still a lost opportunity (when you can just withdraw it and put in another investment product where it could possibly earn profit). But as terrapin says, are such options available here, in this kind of market, when everybody would opt to put their money under their mattresses than take chance in a very uncertain time? And besides, paper loss when actualized is still money lost. Which by the way, you have shed blood and tears to acquire. And also, if this is the price of being able to play the game and have the chance to get all (if not more) of your capital then I’m willing to pay, or wait for it.

You know that no single strategy can guarantee security of your capital or your earnings. For this matter, why not adapt more than one which you think are equally sensible?

Of course the story becomes different when you are old (probably near retirement, in your retirement or past your retirement) too old to wait for the next bullish market (which maybe >5 years in the making). In this regard, it is a SCREAMING REDEEM IT!
hihi

Monday, October 27, 2008

Ironies

I am not sure if this is true for everybody. But I realized that as we transcend from the stage of innocence to that of maturity, there is that phase in between that we become cynical. Probably as we get to experience life and the real world, we get to see the contradictions behind our values and we begin to question the integrity of our convictions. It can even make you feel betrayed and connived on by your mentors in leading you to believe certain things about life, which you may find dubious, if not true. For example, these ironies between good and evil.

1. Why is it much harder to be good, moral and upright than to be evil, immoral and ruthless? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? What’s worse is, these bad people get to do it the easier way out and yet get to reap the rewards. And put it in a Swiss Bank. And get interest. In dollars (or in euros). For the long-term. Cost-averaged!

2. We often tell, or convince ourselves and others, that goodness will always be rewarded if not on earth, in heaven. Why can’t heaven be on earth but hell can? Why can’t our righteousness be compensated while we are still alive? So that we will be motivated to do more even good deeds. And end up in the heavens for certain (not to mention live life in merit)? And not kidnapped, vanished or eliminated.

3. Is it just me, or is it just in the movies, or is it but reality that evil always win over good initially (and for a much longer time). The latter prevailing eventually in the end after one or more (if not all) of the protagonist dies, or after 2 or 3 despicable generations, not to mention after 2 hours in a 2-hour movie. And then (in real life) when the time of retribution comes, they’ll wound up having so much money to pay a good liar or buy justice, or clemency or a dialysis machine (not to mention an organ) sparing them of punishment partially (if not totally). Which is still great, of course – I mean, that good would end up winning (and hypocrisy aside, the ability to procure everything literally). But why can’t uprightness triumph over wicknedness even from the start? So that again, man can be inspired to uphold what is right from the beginning.

4. Finally, again, is it just an adage, my observation or an actuality that really, (tsk,tsk)- “matagal mamatay ang masamang damo”. After some massive stroke (ex-senator), a bad knee (ex-pres), or a deceased set of kidneys (current doj sec), they still manage to recover (OMG!). Others in fact, have remained quite well for ages (ex-comelec) while their divine counterparts are dying relatively younger (edsa figure, ex-presidentiable, national hero). Probably because the former just happens to have healthy genes. This being maybe just a coincidence. Or perhaps being righteous really is much more stressful than being crooked. You tell me.

But as we mature, we begin to reconcile the paradox, come up with acceptable answers and realize that our gurus were right (well, at least most of the time).

But as for me, the above incongruities, I have not completely resolved.

Probably because sarcasm denies reason. Or maybe it sees beyond what is believed as reasonable.

If you can help enlighten me, please do so. I don’t want to be in the dark. At least, not for long. He, he.